California voters are split on the upcoming recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), according to a CBS News poll released Sunday.

In the poll, 52 percent of likely voters said Newsom should not be recalled, while 48 percent said he should be ousted, a difference that falls right at the edge of the poll’s 4-point margin of error.

Still, the poll highlights an enthusiasm gap among recall opponents and backers that could put Newsom in jeopardy. Seventy-eight percent of Republican voters said they will “definitely” vote in next month’s recall, and 72 percent said they are “very motivated to vote.” Only 73 percent of Democrats said they will definitely vote, and just 61 percent said they are very motivated to cast a ballot.ADVERTISEMENT

The CBS survey is just the latest to show Newsom narrowly beating out the recall effort but also showing that his opponents are more likely to vote in the Sept. 14 election. 

The ballot next month will give voters two questions: the first on whether Newsom should be recalled, and a second on who should replace him. The results of the second question will only matter if a majority first say that Newsom should be removed.

Newsom’s approval ratings are still solidly above water, with 57 percent of California adults approving of the job he’s doing and 43 percent of adults disapproving.

The first-term governor, who will also be up for reelection next year if he survives the recall, is being opposed by a sprawling field of Republicans looking to replace him. Leading the field currently is conservative radio host Larry Elder, though 25 percent of respondents said they are unsure who they’d choose as a replacement and 20 percent said they would select “no one.” 

The CBS poll surveyed 1,856 adult residents of California, including 1,534 likely voters, from Aug. 6 to 12.